After reading extracts from the judge’s report on the sentencing of Rudy Guede for his role in the murder of Meredith Kercher, I was deeply saddened and profoundly shocked by the brutal and sadistic way in which Meredith was attacked, tortured, killed and left to die. These kinds of reports never make for particularly pleasant reading and this was no exception. I was pleased to see that the judge made a point of stating that he was not particularly interested in the why’s and how’s of the threesomes deadly meeting but instead started from the fairly cast iron assumption that all three were present in the room at the time of the murder.

When Guede opted for a fast-track trial I doubt it surprised many and it certainly didn’t surprise me. Despite his almost pathological inability to tell the truth and his “colossal accumulation of contradictions and attempts to throw investigators off the track”, Guede played a very smart card indeed; he refused to be a scapegoat. I must admit I was surprised he got 30 years then came to the conclusion that such a harsh sentence (and attempting to reduce it) would only serve to increase his chances of talking about what happened that night.

Reading the judges report one can only come to the conclusion that Rudy Guede took part in a shocking and abhorrent crime then despite the fact there was ample opportunity for Meredith to be saved he walked (or rather ran) away without so much as a second thought. Guede has shown no remorse for his despicable actions that night and the sentence handed down by the judge firmly reflects this.

Guede strikes me as a particularly selfish individual prone to acting on impulse and the sort of person that had rather gotten used to doing whatever he wanted to do, whenever he felt like doing it. If Guede was capable of telling the truth, which is about as likely as me becoming the next pope, he may well get some sort of deal or even a better chance of parole. It really would be in his best interest to override the “I don’t wanna!” protective mechanism currently governing his psyche and start talking from the unique vantage point of being the only person in the house that night that has nothing left to lose. 30 years is a long time to sit and ponder Rudy and believe me the prosecution can and will convict Knox and Sollecito with or without your help.

Amanda Knox and her camp have twice made the mistake of pointing the finger of blame at what could generally be argued as a stereotypical black, male perpetrator. It’s backfired. Amanda accused Patrick Lumumba of attacking and killing Meredith in a false statement, Lumumba was in his bar at the time of the murder and is currently suing her for slander. Both defendants’ lawyers have repeatedly blamed Rudy Guede for the murder. The so called lone wolf theory suggests Guede had the motivation or capability to scale a very high wall, smash a window and climb through without cutting himself in order to rape and kill Meredith Kercher. I’m sure this theory has been refuted by virtually all the evidence available so far yet the defence for both Knox and Sollecito still seem to think it’s a valid argument.

Starting with the assumption that everything Guede has said about the reasons he went to the cottage that night is a great big whopping lie, a few questions about the lone wolf theory remain:

1.    Why would Guede go to the house on his own? He had no reason to go there alone. Despite what many people think a person with no real history of sexual assault or violence doesn’t just wake up one day and ‘decide to rape and kill someone’. This kind of attack is usually an escalation of previous offences, planned in advance and much more carefully executed than Meredith’s murder was. The perpetrator usually has some kind of juvenile record for indecent exposure, violence or sexual assault and as far as we know Guede had none of these. This profile of Guede is totally wrong he’s not a killer he’s a coward, yet I believe the presence of the other two made him do something he’d probably be unlikely to do on his own.

2.    If he had never met Meredith in person or had seen her in a bar how would he know where to find her and that she would be alone? If the lone wolf theory can possibly hold water the jury would have to be convinced that Guede intended to rape and kill Meredith before he got to the cottage. Guede would not have gone to the house to rape and kill Meredith unless he was sure she would be alone. Even if Meredith had met Guede in a bar in Perugia she probably wouldn’t have told him where she lived (it’s been stated that Guede often put women off with his overly pushy attitude). Guede doesn’t strike me as a stalker type, again the profile is wrong. I’m sure there were plenty of other young ladies in Perugia whom he would have liked to have sex with. If we assume that Guede never knew Amanda we would also have to make the assumption that Guede had been stalking Meredith, knowing her place of residence and knowing whether or not she would be home alone would indicate that he had been following her. This seems very unlikely. A more likely scenario seems to be that Guede knew Amanda, knew where Amanda lived and knew that Meredith lived with her. Guede had also been told by Amanda that she was at home with Meredith. Guede arrived to collect some money for drugs that Amanda owed him. The rest they say is history.

3.    If Amanda wasn’t there and he was so intent on raping and killing Meredith why not just ring the doorbell and pounce as soon as she opened the door? Why break in through a window so high off the ground when several other points of entry would have been much easier and less messy? Rudy might be a few bricks short of a wall but he’s not a blithering idiot.

4.    If Guede really did commit the crime alone why were defensive knife wounds found on the victims hands? Did Guede have enough hands/physical strength to hold the victim down, hold a knife to and slash her throat and assault her sexually? Almost certainly not and remember Guede would have been struggling with a strong and brave young woman, fighting for her life the other two simply had to have been there.

The lone wolf theory really has a lot of gaping holes in it, making cast iron assumptions about Rudy Guede that are not supported by any theory or research that we have about the nature of these crimes and the sorts of people that commit them. The lone wolf theory might possibly hold water if Knox and Sollecito had been arrested after Guede, however the police had cottoned on the strange behaviour of Knox and Sollecito long before they caught Guede implying that they thought there was more than one person involved from the start. This really is a stupid theory.

I suppose it is what we have come to expect from Amanda and the marching band of narcissistic defiance that follows her, playing their own dreadful tune and continuing to insult and degrade the memory of Meredith Kercher.